Is Gerald Celente a reliable source of information for the economy and politics?

I watched this video with him on youtube because I saw it on the front page under news and politics. Tell me what you think...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-emVKUs7N-I





-link is correct just isn't clickable, gotta copy and paste|||He's a "trend forecaster." Essentially he makes predictions based on economics and historical precedent, applies the known events of the past to current conditions and makes educated predictions on what likely trends will be.





His track record is ok - certainly better than any political hack or Keynesian Economist. He predicted the 1987 stock market crash, the fall of the USSR, and the Asian currency crisis of the late 1990s. In 2007, he predicted the financial meltdown with some significant degree of accuracy. Although, he assumed more of the larger companies would have been allowed to follow the bankruptcy route rather than the bailouts. As the government and Fed run out of weapons to attack the crisis, they still could with far worse repercussions than would have occurred had they just gone bankrupt without completely bankrupting the local, state, and federal governments. Had they followed what he predicted, we would be in better shape today than we are.





In December 2007 Celente wrote, "Failing banks, busted brokerages, toppled corporate giants, bankrupt cities, states in default, foreign creditors cashing out of US securities ... whatever the spark, the stage is set for panic in the streets" and "Just as the Twin Towers collapsed from the top down, so too will the U.S. economy ... when the giant firms fall, they鈥檒l crush the man on the street." He has also predicted tax revolts. In November 2008 Celente predicted economic depression, tax rebellions and food riots in the United States by 2012.





In April 2009 Celente wrote, "Wall Street controls our financial lives; the media manipulates our minds. These systems cannot be changed from within. There is no alternative. Without a revolution, these institutions will bankrupt the country, keep fighting failed wars, start new ones, and hold us in perpetual intellectual subjugation." He criticized the U.S. stimulus plan of 2009, calling government controlled capitalism "fascism" and saying shopping malls in the U.S. would become "ghost malls." Celente has said, "smaller communities, the smaller groups, the smaller states, the more self-sustaining communities, will 'weather the crisis in style' as big cities and hypertrophic suburbias descend into misery and conflict," and forecasts "a downsizing of America."





In none of his "predictions" is he saying that the US can't recover. He's saying that we've got a very tough road ahead because of the policies pursued by the last 2 administrations and the likely economic effects that logically flow from the current conditions.





I wouldn't take his predictions any more seriously than you'd take Nouriel Roubini or Peter Schiff. At the same time, Celente doesn't hold back on his opinions. Dismissing him as an "idiot" ignores his track record. He is hyperbolic and seems crazy at times, but some of what he says has some truth to it and is worth weighing against the "popular consensus."